Why the Browns will make the playoffs but still consider 2024 season a failure — Jimmy Watkins (2024)

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Two men arrived four years ago and changed a franchise. Since the Browns hired coach Kevin Stefanski and president of football operations Andrew Berry in 2020, Cleveland has reversed a losing culture, re-tooled a flawed roster and reinvigorated a broken fanbase.

But entering the 2024 season, I wonder if Stefanski and Berry can meet the expectations they’ve inspired.

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Good news: I say the Browns are a playoff team again, even if quarterback Deshaun Watson once again plays closer to Cleveland form than his Houston peak. Assuming relative health, the defense should be among the league’s best, if not the best for a second straight year. Over the last five seasons, top five NFL defenses (by yards per play) have averaged 9.4 wins per season and made the playoffs at a 60% clip. No guarantee, but Browns fans will take those odds.

What’s more, Cleveland’s offense under Watson has actually performed passably, even if his own numbers underwhelm. During Watson’s 11 real starts — we’re not counting the five passes he threw in Indianapolis last season — the Browns average 5.4 yards per play, which would’ve ranked around league average (tied for 13th) during the 2023 season. Cleveland only scored 21 points per game (20th in 2023) and gained 6.5 yards per pass attempt (27th in 2023) during those starts, but I trust Stefanski and new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to elevate the quarterback and improve Cleveland’s other Watson-led metrics.

For the record, I maintain that trust even if Watson gets hurt again and backup quarterback Jameis Winston takes the reins. Joe Flacco’s Browns gained 5.9 yards per play (think 2023 Detroit Lions) and scored 28.6 points per game (think 2023 San Francisco 49ers) over five regular-season games last season. Cleveland’s infrastructure is sturdy around the quarterback.

Now the bad news: Playoff entry is no longer an acceptable standard for success. After two postseason appearances (one win) in four years, it’s time to make a run. Every signal from the Browns’ power brokers suggests as much.

Signal 1: Cleveland enters Week 1 with 13 players aged 30 or older on its roster, the most during Berry’s tenure. After fielding some of the league’s youngest rosters to begin his tenure, Berry has built the league’s second oldest in 2024. Contenders like veterans.

Signal 2: Stefanski overhauled his offensive staff after an 11-6 season in which Cleveland won games with four starting quarterbacks. Former offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt is a good coach who had good ideas and has earned another good job (Patriots offensive coordinator) in short order. But Dorsey is a better fit for Watson, the key to Cleveland’s Super Bowl ceiling.

Signal 3: Berry charged $44.78 million more to the Bank of Watson credit card last week. The move increases cap flexibility now and hurts it later, which means it’s time to win soon.

Take all three in totality, and you see an aging roster built by a front office using every tool at hand to maximize this roster for this season. The Browns are done playing happy-go-lucky football. They are expecting to make the playoffs, then expecting to win the serious games that follow.

I support their ethos and respect their ambition, but I think their premise is flawed.

Cleveland’s defense is great. Watson’s offense has shown flashes of competency. And his supporting cast is good enough to stack regular season wins under various circ*mstances.

To win big in the playoffs, however, your offense ― and/or your quarterback — must be elite.

Zoom out five years again. Since 2019, only two offenses that ranked 11th or lower (again, in yards per play) have made their conference championship game (read: advanced two playoff rounds): The 2019 Packers, led by four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, and the 2022 Bengals, led by consensus top 10 (if not top five) quarterback Joe Burrow. The average conference finalist’s offensive ranking during the same span? 5.35. And unless/until Watson can reassert himself as a high-level passer, his offense can’t match that ceiling.

Watson once belonged in the same breath as Rodgers and Burrow, but he’s ranked 53rd out of 91 qualifying quarterbacks in expected points added (EPA) per play since arriving in Cleveland. His last 300-yard game came during Burrow’s rookie season (2020). And while the Browns’ offense hovered above average (again, 13th) in yards per play over his last 12 starts, the barrier for victory is higher in the postseason.

By the way, eight of those 12 starts came next to running back Nick Chubb, will miss the first four weeks (at least) coming off last year’s season-ending knee surgery. We don’t know how Chubb will look when he returns. And even if he outruns every projection for his future — wouldn’t bet against him — he can’t account for Cleveland’s $230 million question mark.

Neither can defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz or his incredible defense. Neither can reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward? Professional route runner Amari Cooper? Browns icon Joel Bitonio? Nope, nope, nope.

Even the coach and team president are running out of buttons to push. Berry has built an elite roster. Stefanski has won two Coach of the Year awards. Together, they’ve reversed a losing culture.

But the Browns’ ceiling still depends on one man signed two years ago who has played 12 games since. He was supposed to reverse Cleveland’s quarterback curse, return playoff lasers from Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and restore a fanbase’s Super Bowl hopes.

Entering 2024, we’re still waiting for him to change the franchise.

Official Prediction: 10-7, wild card playoff loss